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European Markets Show Mixed Signals; Risk Rally Temporizes Amid Economic Data Review


4 January 2024 Written by Sandro Pontedra  Finance Industry Expert Sandro Pontedra

European stock markets exhibited a mixed response on Wednesday, marking a moment of equilibrium after the robust risk rally that characterized the end of the previous year. This pause in momentum reflects investors' contemplation of recent key economic indicators. As of 03:10 ET (08:10 GMT), Germany's DAX index showed little change, the UK's FTSE 100 index modestly ascended by 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 experienced a slight decline of 0.1%.

A Momentary Respite in the Risk Rally

The close of 2023 saw European stocks rallying, buoyed by the optimism surrounding potential early interest rate cuts by central banks. However, this upbeat sentiment has been somewhat dampened by recent economic data, which suggests ongoing challenges. Manufacturing activity across the eurozone indicated continued contraction in December, marking an 18th consecutive month of shrinkage. This persistent decline hints at a looming recession in the region.

Echoing this sentiment, the U.S. manufacturing sector also revealed a downturn, with the PMI dipping to 47.9 in December from 49.4 in the preceding month, signaling further contraction.

Anticipation for Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes

With a relatively quiet economic calendar in Europe for the day, focusing mainly on German unemployment figures for December, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. These minutes are eagerly anticipated as they could shed light on the U.S. central bank’s stance regarding monetary easing.

Corporate Spotlight: Ryanair’s Sales Dynamics

In corporate developments, Ryanair (IR:RYA) is under scrutiny following its announcement that several online travel agents ceased selling its flights starting early December due to legal and regulatory pressures. The airline anticipates a short-term impact on its load factors by 1% or 2% in December and January, though it does not foresee a substantial effect on its annual traffic volumes or profit-after-tax guidance.

Oil Prices Recede Amid Inventory Data Anticipation

Oil prices saw a pullback on Wednesday after registering sharp increases earlier in the week. The focus is now on the upcoming release of weekly inventory data from the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer. By 03:10 ET, U.S. crude futures had declined by 0.6% to $69.95 a barrel, and Brent contracts had fallen by 0.5% to $75.51 a barrel. The market awaits the American Petroleum Institute’s inventory report, delayed to Wednesday due to the New Year’s holiday, followed by official data on Thursday. Earlier in the week, oil prices had surged following attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels, raising concerns about potential disruptions in this crucial transit area.

Other Market Movements In other market developments, gold futures slightly decreased by 0.1% to $2,072.30/oz, while the EUR/USD pair showed a modest increase of 0.2%, trading at 1.0964.

In conclusion, the European stock markets are experiencing a mix of responses as investors reassess their positions in light of recent economic data and await further cues from central bank policies. The developments in the oil market and corporate news like Ryanair's recent announcement are also influencing market dynamics.


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