The USDJPY pair has been exhibiting a notable struggle in its attempt to break through the 148.50 resistance level. Over the past five days, the currency pair has been fluctuating following its ascent from the 140.20 support level. Despite this, USDJPY has managed to sustain itself above the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 147.40, calculated from the downward trajectory that spanned from 151.90 to 140.20. The pair's position above the simple moving averages (SMAs) further adds a layer of complexity to the current market dynamics.
However, the unfolding scenario isn't entirely bullish. Technical indicators, specifically the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are hinting at a potential negative correction on the horizon. The RSI, though above the neutral 50 threshold, is tilting downwards, indicating a loss of upward momentum. Simultaneously, the MACD, moving horizontally beyond its trigger and zero lines, suggests a weakening in the current trend.
Should the USDJPY pair successfully breach the 148.50 resistance barrier, it could pave the way for more substantial gains, with potential targets at 149.70 and the previous high of 151.90. This scenario would represent a continuation of the bullish momentum that has been in play.
Conversely, a dip below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 147.70 could signal the onset of a bearish phase, driving the pair towards the next support at 146.60. Further support could be found around the 50-day SMA, which coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 146.07. Below this, the focus shifts to the confluence of the 20- and 200-day SMAs at 145.25 and 145.15, respectively, near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 144.70.
In conclusion, while the USDJPY pair's current positioning above the 61.8% Fibonacci level offers a glimmer of optimism for continued bullish activity in the short term, a breach below this critical level would lend credence to the bearish forecast suggested by the technical oscillators. This scenario underscores the importance of these pivotal Fibonacci levels in determining the pair's short-term trajectory.
